David Montgomery: The Quiet Sell
David Montgomery quietly posted a top season last year, finally having that much needed breakout that dynasty owners banked on in their 2019 rookie drafts.
He was RB4 in PPR leagues, showing out for the final 6 weeks. He posted 20+ in all 6 of those games, while have 25+ in 5 of those games.
Montgomery took advantage of a weaker schedule, and saw his offensive line play get better as the weeks went on. Bringing this kind of upside is rare, but how much should we expect from the Iowa State alum in 2021 and beyond?
I don’t trust David Montgomery. I don’t trust the Chicago Bears. I don’t trust Matt Nagy. While he did impress the final half of the season, last years points do not count towards 2021. Recency bias is a real thing, as before his week 12 breakout David Montgomery did not impress anyone with how he played. Even in 2019, Montgomery never seemed to put it all together like he did in Weeks 12-17 of 2020.
Sample size matters. Illusions and hot runs do happen, and players can peak whether it be from a massive volume boost or a favorable schedule. Monty saw the ladder of that, facing a schedule that didn’t have one top 20 rush defense. Even in those games, nothing popped for Montgomery on his tape. He didn’t look like an elite level RB who could consistently find the holes and make plays happen.
Montgomery will also have Tarik Cohen to compete with this next season, and while I don’t believe it’s a huge factor, it does matter. Montgomery saw 68 targets last year, and a way larger snap share than the year before. Both of these things should take a significant hit, especially the targets. Tarik Cohen was signed to an extension for a reason, he’s got difference making speed with some beautiful elusiveness.
This is really where I fade Montgomery. He‘s my dynasty RB24, while sitting at an ADP of RB18. There’s a lot of other RBs who I would much rather roster than him. While they might not produce or have the volume Montgomery will see, they are either more talented or bring a longer more consistent week-to-week floor.
I’d much rather have any of Harris, Etienne, and Javonte Williams. I’d also much rather have James Robinson, AJ Dillion and Joe Mixon, who are much more talented than Montgomery. This isn’t much of a knock against Montgomery, as RB has slowly become a pretty deep position.
While people are hoping to get a top 12 season again when buying him at his ADP of RB18, I think that’s a pretty hefty reach. With talents like Akers and Swift ready to break out, guys like AJ Dillion who will see a bump in volume while being more talented.
What comes after 2021?
David Montgomery is locked into a pretty secure role for 2021 in Chicago, or so it seems. Having Cohen come back should eat into his once large target share, but his volume should remain consistent week to week.
The Bears have been a subpar team for a few years now, minus the double doink playoff run that saw their elite defense be put to no use, again. This offense needs more explosion, and whether that means a huge push for Deshaun Watson or the letting go of Matt Nagy is meant to be seen.
Matt Nagy isn’t very good at being a NFL head coach, and with his lack of what seems creative play calling or his poor time management, this could be his prove it deal. Situations change, and while Montgomery’s situation looks sturdy today, who knows what the Bears will look like come 2022.
I’m all for getting your guy, and banking on that consistent production in 2021. I play dynasty fantasy football from a 4 year lens and while that is more in depth, it allows me to jump on players when their values are low, or vice versa. The situation in Chicago seems nice, for now. I’m not a supporter in believing the Bears will do right by getting their team over the elusive hump, and wouldn’t bank on Montgomery’s role staying the same for 2022 and beyond.
My thoughts on David Montgomery are clearly in the minority but I didn’t see something worth buying. I’m willing to miss on Monty to get my guys, especially the ones I believe are better. As always, leave your thoughts and comments below!