Updated: Aug 24, 2020
By Ron Brown @Headbutturface
Dynasty QB Fades
Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group
Derek Carr – Raiders – Carr is currently is holding an ADP as the 35th ranked QB in Superflex leagues. This ADP is really low for a starting QB in Superflex and Two QB formats. Carr isn’t a bad QB. He was really efficient on 3rd down last year obtaining PFFs 5th highest grade on 3rd down. He also ranked 8th in grade-under pressure. Despite this, he is regressing as a QB. He seems to be becoming more of a game manager type QB. He has really taken a step back. He had 3rd lowest depth of target in the league at 6.9. The thing is, he isn’t that inaccurate when he goes deep. He hovers around average in several of deep ball accuracy metrics. The issue is that he just refuses to push the ball down field. Carr routinely settles for the underneath routes and gets the ball out very quickly not letting the downfield routes develop. Looking at the heat maps of last years throws, Carr has areas of the field he just doesn’t throw to. Further illustrating my point, Carr was second to last in the league in average throw depth. Being safe with the ball is one thing, but not creating explosive plays by nature is another.
The fact that the Raiders pursued Tom Brady in the offseason and eventually signed Marcus Mariota is a tell by the Raiders. I also had read that the Raiders scouted the QB’s very heavily in the past two drafts. The Raiders want to move on from Carr, but either haven’t been successful or haven’t had a opportunity to significantly upgrade. The writing is on the wall.
Though signed through 2022, Carr can be released next year with a nominal dead money hit to the Raiders of 2.5 million. That is peanuts. I will say his 19.5 million dollar salary in 2021 and 2022 is very manageable for a starting QB.
Going into Carr’s 3rd year with Gruden, this is the make-or-break year. I suggest you cut bait and get what you can before the Raiders vaporize what value Carr has left.
The Sports Exchange
Mitch Trubisky -Bears – Mitch has been objectively terrible. He currently is holding an ADP of the 40th QB…in Super flex…as a starter. Aside from making terrible decisions, having horrible accuracy, and despite a good cast around him, he isn’t half bad. Mitch is miserable under pressure. Trubisky’s adjusted completion percentage under pressure ranks 37thin the NFL. There are 32 teams in the league. This is suboptimal. His adjusted completion percentage in a clean pocket is 30th. This means he is inaccurate with no pressure. Yikes. There are several other stats showing his ineffectiveness, but I dont want to be cruel. He just isn’t a good NFL QB and shows little signs of improving.
The fact the Bears didn’t pick up his 5th year option tells you all you need to know about what direction they are going. The most discouraging thing is that the Bears have a good offensive scheme and supporting cast.
Nick Foles will be QB at some point this year. Foles familiarity with coach Matt Nagy from their time in KC (Foles was a back up 2016 and Nagy was the QB Coach) is pretty much a death knell for our buddy Mitch. The writing is on the wall.
Sell for what you can get. In one-QB leagues I am not even sure he is tradable unless he is part of a larger deal. In Superflex or Two QB leagues, I would get out ASAP.
CHARLES KRUPA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Tyrod Taylor – Chargers– Tyrod currently is holding an ADP of 37 in Superflex start-ups. Tyrod is a bridge QB. Honestly, if it wasn’t for the COVID -19 situation, I think there was a good shot Cam Newton would have been signed. Actually, I think there is a still a shot of that happening.
After having a solid three-year stretch in Buffalo from 2015-2017, Taylor was barely functional in 2018. His PFF grade for the 4 games he played in 2018 was 47. That is terrible. A grade of 60 is considered average. The tape was just as bad. Last year, Taylor sat behind Philip Rivers and only attempted 8 passes. Add all of this to the fact the Chargers drafted his replacement, Justin Herbert in the first round of the draft this year and I am not sure why anyone would hold on to him unless you are desperate at the position. Eject Tyrod and move on.
Philip Rivers – Colts– I have always loved Philip Rivers as a player. I love the way the dude talks crap and how he has been a warrior throughout his impressive career. He is currently is holding an ADP of 27 in Superflex start-ups. Rivers isn’t a fade because he is a bad QB. He is showing signs of his age, but being the QB in Indy should really revitalize and potentially extend his career. He has a proven coach, a good scheme, a very good surrounding cast and he is playing in a dome. These are all reasons to not fade him. Ron why are you fading him? Let me explain. He is on a one-year deal with the Colts this year. This is indicative that either he and/or the Colts did not want to commit for anything multiyear. Though, it was said, both sides hope its for more than one year. That is fairly standard for an aging QB, but it makes me suspicious. Where is kinda goes sideways is here. He was offered a job as a high school coach in Alabama after he retires. He accepted. So at some point he will coach high school football. ESPN had interest in him has an analyst before he signed with the Colts. These are all signs that Rivers knows his football mortality is nigh.
Rivers is not going to get much more valuable than he is now at this point in the offseason. Does he have another year in him after 2020? Maybe. This is why I recommend you try and trade him. Now I realize that you may be counting on Rivers this year if you team is competing. I totally get that and would keep him in that scenario. However, if you are rebuilding or have a surplus of QB’s I would look to get what value you can before it evaporates.
Wilfredo Lee, The Associated Press
Josh Allen – Bills – Allen has an ADP of 6 currently in Superflex start ups. Through 2 years Allen has been a good to very good fantasy QB. In 2019 he was the 11th ranked QB in points and 13th overall. Allen has been propped up by his very good rushing stats(510 yards and 9 td in 2019) He has been a valuable QB, but in reality, he isn’t a good QB. In two years he has grades of 65.3 and 64.1 by PFF. That’s barely above average. Last year, he improved his short passing accuracy which helped his game. Where he still comes up short is his deep accuracy or lack of it. In 2019 he was 18 of 74 in passes over 20 yards. In 2018, he was 18 for 63, not much better. It amazes me that a guy with that much arm strength never developed adequate accuracy. He routinely overthrows WR’s by a lot. I know the Bills had some drop issues, but I am referring to his fundamental inaccuracy downfield i.e. creating explosive passing play.s With the addition of Stephon Diggs and another year in the system for the other players this is a big year for Allen. There must be improvement in his passing development. If this does not happen, there could be rough waters ahead in Buffalo. Because of this, I would be looking to sell high with Allen if I can get market value or above. Josh Allen’s value may not be this high at this time next year. Your team situation might dictate you keep Allen and that is understood. Just be aware of a potentially depreciating asset.
Cheap Super Flex Backup QB Buys
All QB’s are important in the 2QB or Superflex format. Here are a few notes on some backups that are worth a look. This list is all back-ups that are surrounded by good coaches, good schemes and good personnel. Several of these QB’s are probably on your waiver wire now or a very inexpensive trade option. At the very least, keep these QB’s on your watch list when roster space is available.
Note: There are several back up QB’s that represent good value right now. Nick Foles, Jameis Winston, and Cam Newton are all at an all time low in value. Please understand they are excluded from this listing due to the fact their price tag is still considerable.
Blaine Gabbert – Buccaneers – We all know Tom Brady is immortal, but if he does get dinged up this year, Gabbert is the guy. Our buddy Blaine has a lot of experience in the Arians offense (Buccaneers and Cardinals) and couple that with the offensive talent and Gabbert would become a must-start in multiQB formats.
Nick Mullens – 49ers – When starting in 2018 proved to be a competent QB. Kyle Shanahan is a great offensive mind and would put Mullens in a spot to succeed if the need arises. Mullens is probably on your waiver wire. If you have the roster space consider him.
Andy Dalton – Cowboys – It’s really the same story as above, a proven QB in a potentially great offense. If you have Dak, I would look to grab Dalton. If your team is depending on Dak to be a cornerstone this year, not attempting to get Dalton is doing yourself a disservice.
Marcus Mariota – Raiders – See the Derek Carr write up above. Additionally, Raiders GM Mike Mayock really liked Mariota coming out. See here. If Carr struggles, Gruden could make the call to Marcus.
Kyle Allen – Redskins – Kyle Allen is a back up QB. He will never be more than that in the NFL, so his long-term prospects are not very good. However, Ron Rivera did not draft Dwayne Haskins, so he has no ties to Haskins aside from the sunk cost from the previous regime in Washington. With Allen’s familiarity to the offense and Rivera, I would not be surprised to see Allen start a handful of games this year.
Brian Hoyer – Patriots – All indications are that Jarrett Stidham is the man in New England. Hoyer is the epitome of a back up QB. If you are desperate for QB depth and skeptical on Stidham, Hoyer could be worth the roster spot.
***All stats are from PFF and Sports Info Solutions. Contractual information is from Spotrac. Any other sources are noted.