• Brandon Sweet

Over/Under: NFL Player & Team Prop Bets To Make in 2020

Editor's Note: For more prop bets, download ThriveFantasy and use promo code 'THECUT' for an additional $20 added onto your first deposit of $20 or more.


1. Baltimore Ravens Win Total: 11.5

After winning 14 games in 2019, the Ravens somehow have the easiest schedule in the league. Of course that is based on opponent's combined winning percentage from last year, but it sounds very favorable all the same. Behind MVP Lamar Jackson, the Ravens won their last 12 regular season games. Winning 14 games in the NFL is a hard feat to accomplish. Replicating that type of performance is going to be extremely difficult to do. My original thought all offseason was to play the under here due to their opening 3 week slate against the Browns, Texans, and Chiefs (Home, Away, Home). The Ravens close out the regular season with games against the Jaguars, Giants, and Bengals. I like them getting to 12 wins in 2020.



Prediction: OVER 11.5 Wins


(Image via SI.com)


2. D.J. Chark Jr. Receiving Yards Total: 949.5

D.J. Chark is in for a huge year. Jacksonville's number 1 receiver is entering his 3rd season and is ready to burst onto the scenes. Last year, he got to 1,000 yards receiving on just 118 targets/73 receptions. Similarly to A.J. Brown, the target volume is only going to increase with his second season with Gardner Minshew. The Jaguars are an intriguing team this year, mainly because we don't know what to expect with Minshew and the offense. One thing I do expect is for Chark to have a big year. 


Prediction: OVER 949.5 Yards  


(Image via Sports Illustrated)


3. Dallas Cowboys Win Total: 9.5

I know what you are thinking. Betting on the Dallas Cowboys to exceed expectations is like digging your own grave, crawling inside, and waiting for the dirt to fall down upon you. However, this is an absolute steal and I'm stamping my approval and hammering the over. I've never been wrong before. *Checks notes*. Nope. Never been wrong before. As I was saying, Dallas has the 3rd easiest schedule based on last year's winning percentage of opponents. The Giants and Redskins are still bad. That's probably 3 wins at the very least right there. With hopes of an improved defense and an incredible array of weapons on the offensive side of the ball, I believe the Cowboys win 10-11 games this season. 


Prediction: OVER 9.5 Wins


(Image via CBS Sports)


4. Michael Thomas Receiving Yard Total: 1,499.5

Michael Thomas has put up insane numbers and missed only 1 career game in 4 seasons. He's gone over 1,100 yards in every season as well. Betting on him to go over 1,500 yards is expecting too much. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders will help remove the burden from him and should take some targets away. I love Thomas in fantasy and still believe he is in the 1,200 - 1,300 receiving yard range. I just don't see him exceeding his total in 2020. 


Prediction: UNDER 1,499.5 Yards 


5. New England Patriots Win Total: 9

Tom Brady is gone. Top defensive players have opted out for this season due to concerns surrounding COVID-19. The Patriots are tanking, they just don't want you to know it. This is clearly a rebuilding year for the Pats, even though they signed Quarterback Cam Newton. If they truly believed in him, he would have gotten more than $7.5 million/1 year. Forget all of that and they still have the toughest schedule in the league. Could they still win 8 games? Maybe. I'm definitely taking the under here and not looking back. 


Prediction: UNDER 9 Wins


6. Lamar Jackson Passing Yard Total: 3,199.5

The REINING! DEFENDING! UNDISPUTED, NFL MVP is back and could be better than ever. The addition of running back J.K. Dobbins and defensive end Calais Campbell have the Ravens set to go all in for a championship in 2020. Jackson finally looked comfortable throwing the ball last year after bumping up his completion percentage to 66.1% (58.2% in 2018). Wide Receiver Marquise Brown showed tremendous chemistry with Jackson and I believe they can build on that success. The dominant run offense of the Ravens will be a force, but I expect Jackson to exceed the total in passing yards with a lot of big plays.


Prediction: OVER 3,199.5 Passing Yards 


(Image via The Times)


7. San Francisco 49ers Win Total: 10.5

If there is any team that could take a step back in 2020 and still make the playoffs, I believe that team is the 49ers. As we've seen before, the previous year's top defense has a tough time replicating that same success the following season. They still have an incredible defensive line and solid foundation, but I think they take a minor step back this season. Super Bowl hangovers are real. In fact, 2 out of the last 3 teams to lose in the super bowl have missed the playoffs the following season (Rams 2019, Falcons 2018). San Francisco lost Emmanuel Sanders and DeForest Buckner, two key contributors in 2019. I still believe they could win 8-10 games, but I think anything more than that is going to be tough to accomplish. 


Prediction: UNDER 10.5 Wins


(Image via PFF.com)


8. Calvin Ridley Touchdowns Total: 6.5

Calvin Ridley is a number one receiver when healthy. Playing alongside a healthy Julio Jones can only benefit both of them. I expect the Falcons offense to be in the top 10 this season, even with the loss of Austin Hooper. Hooper was top 12 in red zone targets a year ago. Ridley only managed 7 red zone targets a year ago and still scored 7 touchdowns. There's no chance of that happening again. Ridley has scored 17 receiving touchdowns in his first two seasons and I don't expect that average to change this year.


Prediction: OVER 6.5 Touchdowns


9. Houston Texans Win Total: 8

How much do I believe in Deshaun Watson? Enough to take the over at their current expected win total. The loss of DeAndre Hopkins will hurt, but the addition of Brandin Cooks to complement Will Fuller and Randall Cobb is very underrated. Deshaun Watson is a franchise quarterback and is probably top 5 in the league. Houston has won at least 9 games in every season with Bill O'Brien except in 2017 when Watson missed almost the entire year due to a torn ACL. There's no doubt the man can coach, just maybe keep him out of the front office decisions? Houston is tied for the 8th toughest schedule in 2020, but the ability of Watson will elevate them in a so-so division.


Prediction: OVER 8 Wins


(Image via The Athletic)


10. Josh Allen Rushing Touchdowns Total: 7.5

Allen's come out and said he does not want to run the ball as much in 2020 as he did in his first two seasons. The addition of Zack Moss to complement Devin Singletary should allow the Bills to garner more production out of their backfield, especially in the red zone. Allen will always be a threat to run the ball in the red zone with his size and stature. I do like Allen to get close to his rushing total again, but this time the running backs will provide some much needed help in the red zone. Allen needs to be healthy for the Bills to be successful and taking less hits is something they need to focus on in 2020. 


Prediction: UNDER 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns

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