Overvalued & Undervalued Rookies (2021 Fantasy Football)
Updated: Jun 24
Dynasty start ups are always a blast, depending on how your league runs their start-up rookies might be included in the initial draft. Or, your league may elect to do a rookie draft separately, which would then space out the rookie shares. Looking over the Sleeper ADP (Average Draft Position) released on the 14th of June, here are a few rookies I feel are being undervalued and overvalued based on the latest dynasty draft startups in both 1QB PPR and superflex startups.
Elijah Moore (WR, New York Jets)
Undervalued (Sleeper ADP: Pick 116.2 1 QB, Pick 115.5 Superflex)
He is going off the board in the 9th round of most Sleeper drafts as of June 14th. There hasn't been a player with more hype on Twitter over the last few weeks. However, with Crowder restructuring his contract, it does take some of the upside away from Moore for the year, but it also might help move his ADP lower. With Crowder potentially out the door next year, the slot will be open in 2022! Moore is getting raved reviews coming out of camp and should get some great work out of the slot this year, even with Crowder back. The Jets would be wise to get him on the field as much as possible to build chemistry and become Zac Wilson’s safety blanket across the middle of the field. I can see him having a very similar career as Jarvis Landry, he’s not going to hurt your fantasy team, he will be more a low-end WR2, high upside WR3. He might have some higher years in PPR formats.
Najee Harris (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers)
Overvalued (Sleeper ADP: Pick 22.8 1 QB, Pick 24.2 Superflex)
(Photo Credit: Caitlyn Epes, Pittsburgh Steelers)
First off, I want to point out that he is older than all the sophomore RBs from last year's class, and he’s actually only a month younger than Josh Jacobs. He returned to school for his SR year, instead of entering the draft last year. He lands in a great spot with the Steelers, we all know that Tomlin likes to use one featured back, but we can’t forget what this run game looked like last year. Can this offensive line turn things around? Does Tomlin mix in Snell or McFarland? Harris is currently going off the board at the end of the second round of both one QB and superflex startups, he is being picked ahead of Clyde Edwards-Heleire, and depending on formats is being picked a round or two ahead of guys like Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders, and Josh Jacobs. Fellow rookie RBs Eitenne and Williams are going two and three rounds after him in both formats. I do believe Harris could be something special, but he doesn’t have the appeal of being younger entering the league. We are drafting him as if he is already a star in the league, but he hasn't proved anything yet. I also have a feeling his ADP is actually only going to rise. RBs are important in startups, particularly in a one QB league, but his ADP is only a difference of two spots in superflex startups. I for one would rather wait one round later and take a shot at most of the other names listed at their ADP, but time will tell I guess.
Nico Collins (WR, Houston Texans)
Undervalued (Pick 165.1 1 QB, Pick 175.0 Superflex)
Collins has the size and speed to produce in the league. He doesn’t have to come in and be the main guy right away with Cooks on the roster. He could easily step in as the number two target in an offense that will need to be pass-heavy because they will be behind in many games this year. It’s hard to say whether the production will come this year or not, depending on the Deshaun Watson situation, but regardless of how much they will be behind Collins just has to beat out Keke Coutee and Randall Cobb for targets. He is 6’4"," ran a 4.45 40 time, and has a catch radius in the 94th percentile according to playerprofiler.com. The Texans didn’t have a first or second-round pick and used their first pick in the draft on Davis Mills, but then turned around and used their second third-round pick on Nico Collins. He was brought in by this coaching staff, while Cobb and Coutee were players on the roster from previous regimes, and let's remember Cooks has had concussion issues in the past. I think all these factors make Collins an undervalue rookie WR currently. Whether it’s Taylor, Mills, or Watson throwing the ball this year, someone needs to be on the opposite end of the targets. At his current price, I’d happily take the shot on Collins.
Trey Sermon (RB San Francisco 49ers)
Overvalued (Pick 81.5 1 QB, Pick 95.2 Superflex)
I was once told to fade RBs that play with a rushing QB. Hello Trey Lance! Sermon wasn’t highly ranked pre-draft, anywhere from RB 5-10, and he lands on a team that uses the RB by committee approach more than most other teams. Yes, Shannan's offenses can support an RB game to game, but do you really want the headache of guessing which game will be his? He seems like a great RB for best-ball leagues, but at this value, he’s going a bit too high to bank on consistent production in dynasty leagues. The 49ers traded up for him and there is value in that, but they selected Mitchell in the sixth round and brought in Wayne Gallman as a free agent. Jeff Wilson's injury has sky-rocketed Sermon's ADP to an area I don’t feel as comfortable with. If Mostert gets cut I would feel much better about the situation, but even still that doesn’t discount the fact that Shannan rides the hot hand. There are plenty of good WRs going in this range in startups and Sermon is even being taken a round ahead of Justin Fields in non-Superflex startups! I just don’t want the headache of the guessing game for the four games I might get right in a year.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
Undervalued (Pick: 125.8 1 QB, 142.1 Superflex)
Gainwell went into the NFL draft as many people’s RB4, however, draft capital and landing spot dropped him down rookie draft boards. He is arguably the best pass-catcher out of the rookie RBs and he has been compared to Nyhem Hines by a few people in the industry. Let’s remember that Hines finished as the RB15 in PPR leagues last year. I’ve always been a sucker for PPR backs, especially as depth because they typically give a safe floor. If he can work his way into the third-down role, which let's remember Sanders had quite a few dropped passes last year, then he could see work. Also, if an injury occurs to Sanders at all, Kerryon Johnson and Jordan Howard shouldn’t get the bulk of the carries. Gainwell was a productive back in college and he can do more than just catch the ball. However, even if he does just become a receiving back, those players typically have a longer shelf life because they aren’t getting pounded up the middle and getting hit all game long by linebackers and defensive linemen. He is going quite late in startups and could very easily have consistent work right off the bat.
Rashod Batemen (WR Baltimore Ravens)
Overvalued (Pick 82.3 1 QB, 96.2 Superflex)
(Photo Credit: Mitchell Layton-USA TODAY Sports)
We need to remember that Marquise Brown was a first-round pick as well. He has had 2 years of building chemistry with Lamar Jackson. Andrews has been the number one target on this team for years and I don’t see why that would change. This is a run-first offense, and even with how talented Bateman is, he is still a rookie and has competition with this WR group now. The Ravens will spread the ball around. Right now he is being selected over Odell Beckham, Deebo Samuel, Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks, and his teammate Marquise Brown in dynasty startups. These are all guys I believe I would personally take over him. I believe he will be good, but I’d like to get him a bit lower and definitely would not feel comfortable if I was starting him right away.