Last week, we published an article that introduced Thrive Fantasy. If you are new to the platform, or new to props altogether, I suggest you take a quick minute to read that article first. If you’re ready to rock, read on to learn about a few of my favorite NFL props this week.
Don’t forget, using promo code “THECUT” will get you an additional $20 with your initial deposit of $20 or more on Thrive Fantasy.
Side Note: Did you know Saquon Barkley (RB, New York Giants) has yet to score a touchdown yet this season? Seems wild.
Pick 10, Score the Most Points
I won’t highlight every prop in Sunday’s Traditional contests, but I wanted to share my analysis on a few of my favorites.
Thrive Fantasy has the passing yards O/U for Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs) set at 310.5 for their matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Mahomes averages 340 passing yards per game. I’m still leaning towards the ‘Under’ on this stat, due to the Chargers defense (177 pass yards allowed per game). In their previous game, the Chargers allowed 237 pass yards on 23 completions by Dak Prescott (QB, Dallas Cowboys). The matchup could certainly turn into a shootout, but the Chiefs and Chargers have struggled with their run defense, leaving more opportunity for production on the ground. This is also why I’m taking the ‘Over’ on Austin Ekeler at 61.5 rushing yards.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, Tennessee Titans) completed 21 passes against the Arizona Cardinals and then another 27 against the Seattle Seahawks, making his completion O/U of 23.5 this week against the Indianapolis Colts very adequate. However, the Colts only allowed 19 completions from Matthew Stafford (QB, LA Rams) and just 18 from Russell Wilson (QB, Seattle Seahawks). I like the ‘Under’ on Tannehill for a good shot at 110 points. Let’s correlate a little bit with the Tannehill prop. The Colts have only allowed one player to achieve more than 6 receptions so far this season - Cooper Kupp (WR, LA Rams). If we’re taking the ‘Under’ on Tannehill’s completions, it may be advantageous to also take the ‘Under’ on Julio Jones (WR, Tennessee Titans) with his reception O/U of 6.5 this week. Jones has 3 and 6 receptions from 6 and 7 targets (respectively) in his two games this season. It’s only 95 points (if correct) but seems like the easy choice.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, Pittsburgh Steelers) should go ‘Over’ 6.5 receptions against the Cincinnati Bengals, especially since fellow WR Diontae Johnson will miss the game due to an injury sustained last week. Additionally, WRs getting reps from the slot have been getting fed targets when matched up against the Bengals. Sounds like a JuJu party to me.
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Reminder, keep an eye on injury reports and how they can play a part in your prop selections. In this week’s Traditional contests, there are props on DeAndrea Hopkins and Dalvin Cook, but as of Thursday, both are listed as game-time decisions.
It’s OK to be Picky
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Thrive Fantasy offers an abundance of house props. You can choose props from the entire slate available, or you can place your props per NFL game. With the wide variety, you can be very selective. Previously, we discussed having some correlation with your picks. That stands true when switching from the Traditional contests to House Props. You can go beyond correlation and mimic your picks. For example, Mahomes has a similar prop (306.5 Pass YDS) in the House Props. Another one to point out is Austin Ekeler, where his House Prop is at 54.5 Rush Yds. Since we’re talking about the Chiefs vs. Chargers matchup, we should look at a couple more players for the Chargers. Justin Herbert (QB) has a Pass YDS prop at 299.5 and WR Keenan Allen is listed with an 80.5 Rec YDS prop. Herbert currently averages 337.5 passing yards per game, while Allen averages 104 reception yards. The Kansas City defense has allowed just 267 passing yards per game this year, but that includes a low-volume, 107-yard game from Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens). If Baker Mayfield (QB, Cleveland Browns) can throw for 321 yards against the Chiefs, Herbert can certainly throw over 299.5 yards.
Before I share another QB/WR stack, I want to remind you that you cannot submit a single prop bet that only includes two players from the same team. Using my next picks as an example, you cannot submit a prop for only Matthew Stafford (QB, LA Rams) and Cooper Kupp (WR, LA Rams). You would have to include another player from a different team. Stafford averages 299.5 passing yards per game, while Kupp averages 135.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up an average of 342 passing yards per game. With Stafford’s O/U at 310.5 Pass YDS and Kupp’s at 84.5 Rec YDS, it’s an easy ‘Over’ on both for me. Another option that you may consider a little safer is another LA Rams WR, Robert Woods, with an O/U of 63.5 yards. We’ve patiently been waiting for Woods to pop off. This may be his week. Now, if you choose to stack with Stafford (or stack Kupp and Woods, or all three), you still need to complete the prop with a player from another team. You don’t have to, but you could just pick the sole option from the opposing team - Tom Brady (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Brady’s passing prop is set at 305.5 Pass YDS. While I believe this game could turn into a shootout, that 305.5 mark is too high for me. Brady will be missing WR Antonio Brown, leaving less threatening options for CB Jalen Ramsey and the Rams secondary to cover. Brandy does average 327.5 passing yards this season, but the Rams have only allowed 216.5 passing yards per game.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been tough this year, allowing only 172 passing yards per game, so far. This week, the Bills take on the Washington Football Team. In his first start last week, QB Taylor Heinicke threw for 336 yards, 107 of those yards going to WR Terry McLaurin. Heinicke’s passing yards prop is at 236.5, while McLaurin has a 71.5 prop for receiving yards. The Bills defense hasn’t allowed over 188 passing yards from an individual QB or more than 52 receiving yards from an individual WR. I like the ‘Under’ on both Heinicke and McLaurin.
If you need a couple of fillers to complete a team-stacked prop, or just want to sneak in a “safe” prop, I suggest considering Chase Edmonds (RB, Arizona Cardinals) and Devin Singletary (RB, Buffalo Bills) on their rushing yards props this week.
You can get strategic with your House Props. If you have four props that you really like, you can submit them multiple times with different combinations. This can help protect your bets (and your funds) by diversifying your exposure to the same players. Also, if your hit on all four, you can win some big bucks.
Whether you like to submit your lineups early or wait until the last second before kickoff, I suggest you keep an eye on the O/U on each prop. That number can fluctuate, just like we see the O/U rise and drop on point totals for individual games.
Again, don’t forget to use promo code “THECUT” for an additional $20 with your initial deposit of $20 or more on Thrive Fantasy.
Good luck, friends.