If you’re worried that you couldn’t find an NFL prop article from Week 4, that’s because one doesn’t exist. I took a week off to celebrate my anniversary, but we're back in full swing for Week 5. If you weren’t already aware, there is an NFL game being played in London this week, so we literally get football from the crack of dawn until sundown. To celebrate the occasion, I am analyzing house props on Thrive Fantasy from my four favorite matchups, starting bright and early with the Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets and ending with the Sunday night contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Before we dive in, here’s a quick reminder:
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Falcons vs. Jets
This game could be weird and ugly, but it’s still football. The Falcons traveled across the pond without Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, leaving question marks around where Matt Ryan will be throwing the ball. One obvious choice, and our first player prop, is TE Kyle Pitts. His Rec YDS total for the matchup is 60.5 and that seems easily achievable given the absence of two prominent receivers. The only part that is worrisome is that the most receiving yards the Jets have given up to a TE this season is 42 yards (Hunter Henry, NE - Week 2). While I like the ‘Over’ on Pitts, I have a hard time believing Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will surpass his Pass YDS total of 264.5 without Ridley and Gage. Additionally, the Jets defense has only given up an average of 226.3 passing yards so far this year. Mike Davis (RB, Atlanta) has an interesting Rush YDS total of 45.5 and he may not make it there. Davis had a wimpy 13 rush yards on 14 carries last week. Wayne Gallman (RB) is back in action and lately, it’s been the Cordarelle Patterson (WR/RB) show on the Falcons offense. Both players are eating into Mike Davis's opportunities.
The Falcons have given up 264 passing yards per game this year, which is one reason I think Jets QB Zach Wilson will go over his 244.5 Pass YDS total. Wilson looked good against Tennessee last week and I think he has another great opportunity against the Falcons. The final two props are certainly the most volatile - Jets WRs Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder Rec YDS totals of 59.5 and 52.5, respectively. The Falcons have allowed a minimum of 120 combined receiving yards to the top two pass-catchers of opposing teams this year, but will Davis and Crowder lead the Jets?
Patriots vs. Texans
New England RB Damien Harris hasn’t gotten a large workload the last two weeks. Altogether, the Patriots just haven’t run the ball much. Under the assumption that the Pats will be under a positive game script, they may run the ball 25 times. Harris would need at least 16 of those attempts (assuming he can hit a 4.4 YPC) to hit the ‘Over’ on his total. While the efficiency may be there, I worry that he may lack the opportunity, which is why I like the ‘Under.’ Other Patriots player props include QB Mac Jones and WR Jakobi Meyers. The Pass YDS total of 253.5 for Jones and Rec YDS total of 60.5 for Meyers sounds too easy. I like the ‘Over’ for both.
It pains me to say it, but I think the 189.5 Pass YDS total for Houston rookie QB Davis Mills is too much for him to beat. In his two starts, Mills just averaged 127.5 passing yards per game. Granted, he played against teams with solid defense, but he has another difficult matchup against the Patriots defense that has only allowed 185 passing yards per game this season. While I have low expectations for Mills, at least 33% of his attempts will go to WR Brandin Cooks, which should be enough for Cooks to go over his 64.5 Rec YDS total.
Bears vs. Raiders
Damien Williams (RB, Chicago) will have a big opportunity this week with teammate David Montgomery out with an injury. Williams assumes a role that has supplied an average of 17.25 carries per game this season. It’s a workhorse role that should be able to go over his 60.5 Rush YDS total. Rookie QB Justin Fields had a rough first start against Cleveland two weeks ago. He cleaned it up last week against the Lions, throwing 209 yards after just 17 passing attempts. The Bears may be chasing the Raiders offense, likely leading to far more passing attempts for Fields, which is why I got him going over his 206.5 Pass YDS total this week. Fields will need someone to catch the ball and WR Allen Robinson II is perfect for the job. A-Rob had his most productive game last week (3 Rec, 63 Yards). The Bears offense will have a greater need for his services this week, leading to him hitting the ‘Over’ on his 55.5 Rec YDS total.
Derek Carr (QB, Las Vegas) is second in the NFL in passing yards and that’s only because Matthew Stafford (QB, Los Angeles Rams) has played one more game than Carr (before Sunday). The Bears have been tough enough against the run than the Raiders will have to continue to utilize their passing game. I have Carr going over his 280.5 Pass YDS total, but which Raiders pass-catchers will have prominence this week? Darren Waller (TE) and WRs Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs III all have Rec YDS props this week: Waller (67.5), Edwards (38.5), Ruggs (47.5). I like the ‘Over’ on Ruggs and Edwards, simply because they can both surpass their respective totals in 3 or fewer receptions. Edwards may not do it until the final drive of the game, but that still counts. Waller has been under his 67.5 Rec YDS total the last three games. Also, the Bears defense has caused limited productivity from the TE position this year.
Chiefs vs. Bills
Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City) has a Pass YDS total of 307.5 and, even though that’s certainly an attainable stat for Mahomes, I don’t think he will get that this week. While the Bills haven’t faced a formidable passing attack like the Chiefs possess this season, their performances have been too dominant to allow me to think Mahomes will more than double their average passing yards allowed thus far. With that being the case, I also think WR Tyreek Hill will fall short of his 88.5 Rec YDS total, but TE Travis Kelce will go over his 89.5 Rec YDS total as the easier completions will be more necessary for the Chiefs Sunday night.
The Chiefs defense has allowed 291.8 passing yards per game this season, which is the main reason why I like Josh Allen going over his 304.5 Pass YDS total this week. The Chiefs have allowed big games (100+ receiving yards) to receivers in their last 3 games. Stefon Diggs is going to make that four-in-a-row and stride past his 88.5 Rec YDS total. Lastly, the Chiefs defense has been rather friendly to opposing TEs this year, and Buffalo’s TE Dawson Knox has proven to be a reliable target for Josh Allen. You’ll watch Knox go over his 33.5 Rec YDS total this Sunday night.
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