Before I get started, go download ThriveFantasy. Player props are the future of daily fantasy sports and like I keep preaching on the podcast, I won my first contest. And if I can win, you can surely win. Plus, you can and should use our promo code 'THECUT' for an additional $20 when you sign up!
Okay, you've downloaded the app. You're ready to rock. But you're overwhelmed. You've never done player props before. You're unsure of where to start; and that's where I come in. Clearly, I am the master of ThriveFantasy NFL contests, as I have never lost a contest. Let me help you through some of the smash picks this week.
Ezekiel Elliott: OVER 87.5 Rushing Yards
Photo by Jae C. Hong/Dallas Morning News
The Cowboys fed Zeke on Sunday Night Football, which led to his 127 total yards, with 96 of those coming on the ground. The Falcons gave up just 83 rushing yards to the team that traditionally runs on every down in Week 1. Should that worry you? Absolutely not. That was built into the gameplan; the Seahawks were always going to let Russ cook in Week 1. They threw 35 times in a game they were dominating.
The Cowboys don't have that luxury. Sure, they will throw. They will throw a ton. Until they don't have to. And then they're going to feed Zeke. Take the over on that line.
Aaron Jones OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Aaron Jones has a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 games. The Packers looked like a pass-centric offense in Week 1, but we have a full season of sample that tells us that's not going to be the case for the duration of 2020. The Lions gave up three inside-the-five rushing attempts in Week 1 to the Bears, giving me good reason to believe that Aaron Jones will have a few goal line opportunities this week. Smash it.
Chris Godwin UNDER 4.5 Receptions
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
This is the 'gimme' of the week. Godwin's status is in doubt for this week (and perhaps, beyond), and even if he plays, Bruce Arians would not hesitate to give Scotty Miller the reps at receiver after his good season-opener. This one's easy; don't overthink it.
Russell Wilson OVER 285.5 Total Yards
Let Russ cook was a common theme over this offseason, and boy, oh, boy did the Seahawks and Pete Carroll deliver. Wilson had over 350 total yards in Week 1, so betting on him to get less than 300 seems like easy money. Russell Wilson wants his MVP, and a Patriots defense that is ridden with opt-out and injury should put up a similar fight to his Week 1 opponents. Let Russ cook for your lineup.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 303.5 Passing Yards
Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images
I get it. Betting on Patrick Mahomes to underperform isn't something that I would traditionally suggest. But the fact is that the Chargers defense is at the very least formidable, if not elite. Sure, Joe Burrow just missed on a couple of deep shots in Week 1 that, if completed, would have changed this outlook a little. But early-season divisional games are always tough, and this one is no different. And, for that matter, all divisional games are tough. Patrick Mahomes has never thrown for over 300 yards against the Chargers, and has only eclipsed 250 once. This is a smash play.
Don't forget to click over and view our Week 2 Consensus Rankings. A rankings update will come Sunday morning to account for injuries.
Until next time!